1.8 Million Renewals. Three Lender Tiers. The Data.
The Bank of Canada estimates 1.8 million Canadian residential mortgages will renew by end of 2026, with roughly 76% of holders facing higher payments. This page breaks down the renewal pipeline by volume, timing, lender tier, and delinquency — using live data from official sources.
Live data: The charts on this page pull directly from Bank of Canada and Statistics Canada APIs. Numbers refresh with each new data release. All data covers Canadian residential mortgages only.
The Shape of the Wave
The renewal wave peaks in mid-2025 through late 2026. The heaviest months exceed 100,000 maturities each.
Current Market Snapshot
Here is where rates, spreads, and stress indicators sit today:
And here is what borrowers are choosing at origination — rate type, amortization period, and actual rates being funded:
The Three Lender Tiers
The 1.8 million renewing borrowers are distributed across three lender tiers, each with different delinquency rates and borrower profiles.
Tier 1: A-Lender (Banks & Credit Unions)
Over 70% of outstanding residential mortgages have LTV below 65%. Banks and credit unions hold the majority of outstanding loans. CMHC headline delinquency for this segment: ~0.22%.
Tier 2: B-Lender (MFC / Trust Companies)
Approximately 1 in 4 new originations has a debt service ratio above 25%. Extended amortizations (over 25 years) are increasingly common in this segment. MFC/Trust uninsured delinquency has risen to 3x its 2022 low.
Tier 3: Private (MIE / Private Lenders)
MIE uninsured delinquency is approximately 11x the CMHC headline rate and has quadrupled from its 2022 low. FSRA's 2024 Ontario report: 39% of consumers in the private lending channel are classified as "vulnerable" (up from 22%). Over half of short-term private mortgages have APRs exceeding 35%.
Delinquency by Lender Type
CMHC's headline delinquency rate (0.22%) covers insured mortgages at chartered banks. Here is the 90+ day arrears rate across all lender types for uninsured residential mortgages:
Buyer Composition
Buyer composition at origination — first-time buyers, repeat buyers, and investors — as reported by the Bank of Canada:
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Live Market Data Dashboard
We publish live Canadian residential mortgage market data updated directly from the Bank of Canada and Statistics Canada — rates, origination trends, arrears, borrower health, and delinquency by lender type.
Data sources: Bank of Canada Staff Analytical Note SAN-2025-1, BoC Financial Vulnerability Indicators, BoC A4 Banking & Financial Statistics, CMHC Residential Mortgage Industry Data Dashboard, StatsCan Non-Bank Mortgage Lender Survey, FSRA Ontario Private Lending Report 2024. Charts update automatically with each new data release. Canadian residential mortgages only.